Watch

Tell me when something actually changes.

Watch learns what normal looks like for your number and speaks only when a day is really off.

Needs attention

Revenue watch

Example store · every morning at 07:00

Sat 12 Sept
$7,252▼ 26% below a usual Saturday

Revenue is below its normal range for a Saturday. Every Saturday in the last six weeks was higher; weekdays at this level are ordinary, which is why a fixed alert would have missed it.

Not a threshold

An alert rule is a guess about normal, made once and never revisited.

The same six weeks of one shop, judged by a fixed line and by Watch.

Alert above $9,0006 false alarms, missed the real one
Analux: normal for each weekday1 alert, the bad Wednesday

How it decides

Normal, measured the way a statistician would.

The maths, with worked numbers, is in rolling baselines, explained.

  • A typical level

    The median, so one record day cannot redefine normal.

  • A typical spread

    How far ordinary days wander. It sets the band's width.

  • The weekly pattern

    Each weekday judged against its own normal.

    S
    M
    T
    W
    T
    F
    S
  • Enough history first

    No verdict until 14 readings. Until then it says it is learning.

  • Sensitivity you set

    Low, normal or high: how far out a day must be.

  • Consistent every run

    The same statistics every time. The AI never does the maths.

The verdict

Not just that it moved. When, and what moved it.

  • How far off

    In typical spreads.

  • How long

    First odd day, or third in a row.

  • Since when

    The day a new level began.

  • What drove it

    Each segment against its own normal.

Example store · daily revenue · last 7 weeks$48,001 → $41,640
Actual Normal range Baseline Outside
Level shift
▼ since 1 Sept
New level
$41,640 (was $48,001)
Size
4.4σ

What drove it

In store−$6k · 92%
Online−$548 · 8%

Each channel against its own usual level.

Quiet by design

It emails when something changes, then stops.

  • On change

    Not every morning it stays off.

  • Silent on normal days

    No email means nothing unusual.

  • Escalations too

    A change that turns serious writes again.

  • Nothing lost

    Every reading is kept in History.

Revenue watch · this week07:00 daily
Sun
Mon
Tue
Wed
Thu
Fri
Sat
One email, on Saturday.Six quiet mornings.
Revenue watch needs attention07:02
Needs attention

$7,252

Below its normal range for a Saturday.

Put a Watch on the number you check every morning.

A source with a date column and a few weeks of history is enough to judge from the first run.